Two numbers tell you everything and nothing about AeroVironment. Last year’s revenue jumped 141%. Yet, the same year, the company lost $265 million. Both are true, and anyone weighing the AeroVironment earnings report tonight has to reconcile them first.
The company posts first-quarter fiscal 2027 results after the close on September 9, with Wahid Nawabi and his new finance chief Sean Woodward on the call at 4:30 Eastern. Wall Street heads into AeroVironment earnings wanting roughly $0.32 in adjusted profit on about $474 million of revenue. That bar will probably clear. Still, the question underneath it decides where the stock goes: is any of this growth becoming profit, or is AeroVironment simply getting bigger while bleeding more?
🔗Forward Guidance Explained
The AeroVironment earnings guidance hints at an uncomfortable answer. Management expects full-year net income of $8 million to $24 million on more than $2.1 billion of revenue. Because of that, the implied net margin sits near one percent. So a company can win every contract in sight and still be worth less, once each dollar of revenue arrives with a dollar of cost bolted to it.
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV): Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview & Guidance Snapshot (2026 Reference)
| Financial Metric & Event Area | Report Figure, Consensus Estimate & Guidance Parameter |
|---|---|
| Fiscal Quarter Ended | August 1, 2026 |
| Earnings Release Schedule | September 9, 2026 (Scheduled after market close) |
| Consensus-Adjusted EPS | ~$0.32 (analyst estimates range from ~$0.26 to $0.30) |
| Consensus Revenue Estimate | ~$474 million (~$454M to $460M consensus band) |
| Full-Year FY2027 Revenue Guidance | $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion |
| Full-Year FY2027 Net Income / EPS Guide | Implied net income framework / EPS guided to $3.02 to $3.34 |
| Implied Net Margin Profile | ~1% operating net margin target structure |
Why AeroVironment stock fell before earnings
At the start of the year, AVAV was a $390 darling. Then the floor gave way, and the reason has a name: SCAR.
SCAR is the Satellite Communication Augmentation Resource program, worth around $1.7 billion, and it was one of the main reasons AeroVironment paid $4.1 billion for BlueHalo.
In January, the Space Force slapped a stop-work order on it, so the stock fell about 16% in a day. Then,n in March, the Space Force went further and terminated the contract for convenience, telling AeroVironment it could recompete for work it thought it owned.
🔗How to Read an Earnings Report
Meanwhile,e the third quarter delivered a $179 million operating loss and a $151.3 million goodwill write-down. Worse still, those third-quarter figures later had to be restated altogether. Q4 then piled on another $89 million SCAR-related impairment plus a disclosed material weakness in internal controls.
The lawyers arrived next. A securities class action is now moving through the Eastern District of Virginia, naming the company and its executives for allegedly knowing how exposed SCAR was to a Space Force strategy shift and staying quiet. Analysts piled on, too. Raymond James dropped it to Underperform, while RBC moved to Sector Perform, and targets fell across the board as SCAR revenue got scrubbed from every model.
SCAR Contract Unraveling & Financial Restatement Timeline: Operational Crises & Legal Proceedings (2026 Reference)
| Timeline & Milestone | Operational Event, Financial Impact & Legal Consequence |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | Stop-work order issued; underlying equity plunges roughly -16% in a single trading session |
| March 2026 | Government contract formally terminated for convenience, eliminating core project revenue |
| Q3 FY2026 Earnings | Reports severe $179 million operating loss alongside a $151.3 million asset impairment |
| Shortly After Q3 | Q3 financial statements officially restated following internal accounting reviews |
| Q4 FY2026 | Incurs an additional +$89 million impairment and formally discloses material weaknesses in internal controls |
| Ongoing Proceedings | An active securities class action lawsuit is underway in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia |
SCAR is gone, not in renegotiation
Here is what older write-ups keep getting wrong, and it matters. SCAR is not in renegotiation. It is gone. Any take still calling it an open amendment is running on a March headline that reality has already lapped. Instead, treat it as a realized loss and a live lawsuit, not a program waiting to be rebooked.
🔗Goodwill Impairment
Is AeroVironment profitable heading into earnings?
Not on paper, at least not yet. The $265 million loss is real, and no framing erases it. But it is worth seeing where the loss came from, because it is lumpy rather than chronic.
Pull out the SCAR impairments and that brutal third quarter, and the picture changes shape. In fact, Q4 alone swung back to a GAAP profit near $63 million. Adjusted earnings that quarter hit $1.84 a share, roughly 24% above estimates, while adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $140 million, a 22% margin. So the real gap here, between a $265 million annual loss and a 22% quarterly margin, is almost entirely acquisition accounting. Amortization and integration costs from BlueHalo and Empirical flow straight through the reported loss, even as the operating business quietly works. That is the tension every AeroVironment earnings report now has to resolve.
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV): Full-Year Fiscal 2026 Financial Results & Q4 Performance Breakdown (2026 Reference)
| Financial Metric | Fiscal 2026 Result, Q4 Performance & Operational Figure |
|---|---|
| Full-Year Revenue | $1.98 billion, representing a massive 141% year-over-year increase |
| Full-Year Net Loss | $265.1 million net loss ($5.40 per share), impacted by program adjustments |
| Q4 Revenue | $641.6 million, up 133% compared to the prior-year period |
| Q4 GAAP Net Income | ~$63 million GAAP net profit return during the fourth quarter |
| Q4 Adjusted Diluted EPS | $1.84 per share, beating Wall Street consensus estimates by ~24% |
| Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 22% of total revenue, demonstrating strong operating leverage |
| Funded Backlog & Book-to-Bill | $1.2 billion funded backlog backed by a robust 1.4 book-to-bill ratio |
The growth is real, but mostly bought
A 141% growth rate should make you suspicious before excited, and here the suspicion pays off. Most of that number came from buying companies rather than selling more product.
🔗Adjusted EBITDA
AeroVironment absorbed BlueHalo, then added Empirical Systems Aerospace in March for $200 million in cash and stock. Strip the deals out, and organic growth was closer to 30%. Still strong, but nowhere near the headline. So read the business at that 30% line, because acquired revenue never arrives alone. It drags its own cost base behind it.
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV): Fiscal 2026 Growth Mix, Organic Expansion & M&A Contributions (2026 Reference)
| Growth Driver & Metric Area | Fiscal 2026 Figure & Strategic Context |
|---|---|
| Reported Revenue Growth | 141% total year-over-year top-line expansion |
| Organic Growth Rate | ~30% organic expansion across core unmanned systems and loitering munitions |
| Empirical Systems Aerospace M&A | $200 million strategic acquisition completed in March 2026 |
| Prior-Year Earnings Per Share | $1.56 per share net profit reported in the prior fiscal year |
What AeroVironment has actually won
And yet, for all the wreckage on the income statement, the order book is the genuine article, and it is not small. In early September, the Army handed AeroVironment a $464.8 million production contract for its LOCUST X3 laser.
🔗Organic vs Acquired Growth
Now that one deserves a pause. It is the first full-rate laser weapon production program in U.S. history; it funds dozens of 30-kilowatt systems, and the company is sinking $30 million into its Albuquerque site to build them.
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV): Major Defense Programs, Client Roster & Contract Valuations (2026 Reference)
| Defense Program & System | Military Customer & Agency | Contract Value & Commitment |
|---|---|---|
| LOCUST X3 Laser & E-HEL Systems | U.S. Army | $464.8 million |
| P550 eVTOL (82 Unmanned Systems) | U.S. Army | $117.3 million |
| Domestic Shield Counter-UAS IDIQ | JIATF-401 | $500.0 million ceiling |
| Switchblade 600 Loitering Munitions | U.S. Army | $51.0 million |
| JUMP 20 (MQ-31A Official Designation) | Italian Army | $46.6 million |
| Puma LARUS Package | German Bundeswehr | $30.9 million |
The allies matter as much as the dollars. Italy folded the JUMP 20 into its forces as the MQ-31A, while Germany bought Puma systems for a NATO reconnaissance program. So this is a company wiring itself into allied procurement exactly as Europe re-arms.
🔗Book-to-Bill and Backlog
Two stranger bets sit off to the side, namely a NASA job co-designing Mars helicopters and a $75 million Air Force biotech program. Of course, they make great copy. Still, at that scale, they do not move the investment case, so set them aside.
Why the lasers are the real story
Strip out the noise, and the reason to own this stock is arithmetic on a battlefield. A Western military will fire an interceptor worth several hundred thousand dollars, sometimes millions, to down a drone that costs a few thousand. Everyone in defense knows that trade is unsustainable because the last few years of fighting have proven it repeatedly.
A laser rewrites the math. LOCUST kills small drones with electricity instead of a missile, so each shot costs pennies while the expensive interceptors stay in the magazine for threats that deserve them.
That is why the award is more than a line item. Ultimately, full-rate production turns a lab demo into a franchise with reorders built in, and a franchise is worth many times a one-off sale.
🔗Defense Stocks
Still, the only thing between that story and a great business is whether AeroVironment can build these at a workable margin, which drops us right back onto the question everything keeps circling.
Air Defense Cost Asymmetry & Directed Energy Economics: LOCUST X3 Laser System Analysis (2026 Reference)
| Air Defense Asymmetry Metric & System | Approximate Cost, Power Output & Operational Parameter |
|---|---|
| Standard Attack Drone Cost | Low thousands of dollars per tactical loitering munition unit |
| Conventional Missile Interceptor Cost | Hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars per engagement |
| LOCUST X3 Cost Per Engagement Shot | Pennies per shot, utilizing onboard tactical electrical power |
| LOCUST X3 Directed Energy Output | 30 kilowatts of continuous laser power |
| Primary Target Set | Small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) and counter-drone missions |
Bull, bear, and a stock that has halved
The market’s answer right now is a share price near $138, down about a third this year and close to half over twelve months. Meanwhile, analysts have walked their targets down from roughly $310 to $286.
Ahead of the AeroVironment earnings release, the bull case almost writes itself. A $1.2 billion funded backlog, a 1.4 book-to-bill, the first American laser production line, allied orders stacking up, and a 22% adjusted margin that proves the machine works once the write-downs stop. Indeed, management is waving at fiscal 2030: $3.5 to $4 billion of revenue, organic growth in the high teens, and EBITDA margins of 18 to 20%.
The bear case is just as concrete, though shorter. This year’s guide implies about 10% growth and a one-percent net margin. Besides, R&D is climbing toward 9% of revenue and will chew into earnings.
There is a live securities suit, and the field is filling with defense-tech names all selling the same future. Ultimately, the 550 basis points of margin improvement the FY30 plan needs is not a rounding error. It is the thesis.
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV): Valuation Markers, Market Performance & Long-Term Targets (2026 Reference)
| Valuation Marker & Metric | Current Figure, Market Multiple & Outlook Parameter |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | ~$138 (tracking near 52-week lows following recent pullbacks) |
| Year-to-Date (YTD) Return | Down ~34% year-to-date on valuation compression |
| Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) Performance | Down ~50% from prior 52-week highs ($417.86 peak) |
| Wall Street Consensus Price Target | ~$286, adjusted downward from prior consensus of $310 |
| Fiscal 2027 EPS Estimate | Trimmed to ~$0.84 per share amid operating cost adjustments |
| Current Short Interest | ~9.6% of total float, indicating moderate bearish positioning |
| Long-Term FY2030 Revenue Target | $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion cumulative strategic outlook |
What the AeroVironment earnings report should reveal tonight
It all collapses into one question when the release lands: can a company that grew 141% and lost $265 million start turning a backlog into profit? Of course, the AeroVironment earnings print will not answer that fully.
🔗Short Squeeze Trading Strategies
Still, it will offer the first honest tells. Look for whether management splits organic growth from acquired revenue instead of hiding behind the blended figure. Watch whether that 22% adjusted margin holds. Check whether the $2.125 to $2.225 billion full-year guide survives a fresh quarter. Finally, listen for anything at all on the SCAR recompete or the lawsuit.
The contracts are signed, and the technology is real. That was never in doubt. But the income statement has not caught up, and a stock that has fallen by half has been saying so for a while.
🔗Overnight Trading
If you trade defense names, this is the kind of print that moves fast. The last AeroVironment earnings report sent the stock 19% higher after hours. So a Trade The Pool-funded account lets you take a swing at a catalyst like this on the firm’s capital instead of your own, with your downside defined before you enter. Form a view, size it properly, and let the tape confirm it.
NFA. DYOR. Informational only, not investment advice. Figures come from AeroVironment’s SEC filings and Q4 FY2026 release, company contract announcements, court filings in the AVAV securities class action, and analyst notes from RBC, Raymond James, and Simply Wall St.
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